Tennis · resolved market
Swiss Indoors Basel: Casper Ruud vs Quentin Halys
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd07711a2b17b3ee5ac1f25b9d96ab617e217d5cf0dc08b99589c8b8c3391668a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ruudof Ruud, Halys
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,424
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,424 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Ruud | 79c | 10,000$7,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,100 | 374 | 50%187 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa576…89a4backed Halys | 21c | 10,000$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…14c8backed Halys | 9c | 2,633$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…2145backed Halys | 11c | 2,146$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.19 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Halys | 5c | 1,654$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.79 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Ruud | 79c | 1,211$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.25 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked Halys | 19c | 999.57$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.92 | 252 | 44.4%112 W · 140 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Halys | 19c | 754.06$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.25 | 158 | 32.3%51 W · 107 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Halys | 18c | 556.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.17 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Halys | 7c | 454.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Halys | 18c | 424.03$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.76 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc350…3669backed Halys | 18c | 387.9$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.82 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Halys | 18c | 346.67$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Halys | 7c | 318.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0c…d370backed Halys | 11c | 270.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Halys | 4c | 264.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8c…b52cbacked Halys | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Halys | 9c | 220.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Halys | 6c | 201.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f83…7252backed Halys | 19c | 172.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Halys | 18c | 167$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Halys | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 115 | 33.9%39 W · 76 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…e147backed Halys | 9c | 154.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Halys | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Ruud | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 704 | 65.2%459 W · 245 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Halys | 17c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 287 | 47.7%137 W · 150 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Halys | 13c | 78.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…7633backed Ruud | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe351…670bbacked Halys | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.