Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Nakashima vs Cerundolo
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0a142ba8569e6469ff78f562bfa9b92ff1ebb6970b28a8244a1fa6425cb1a6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nakashimaof Nakashima, Cerundolo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,948
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f99…c209backed Cerundolo | 49c | 987.54$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.73 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Nakashima | 50c | 690.31$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.51 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcf…6585backed Cerundolo | 52c | 552.03$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Cerundolo | 51c | 535.53$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.73 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Nakashima | 49c | 433.77$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.48 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…db26backed Nakashima | 53c | 403.39$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.59 | 825 | 60.5%499 W · 326 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ac…5018backed Nakashima | 63c | 351.73$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.47 | 208 | 44.2%92 W · 116 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Cerundolo | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Nakashima | 52c | 96.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nakashima | 52c | 81.91$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.42 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Cerundolo | 42c | 45.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 450 | 51.8%233 W · 217 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Nakashima | 51c | 38.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Cerundolo | 54c | 36.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 193 | 44.6%86 W · 107 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e11…e1f5backed Nakashima | 77c | 32.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 214 | 51.4%110 W · 104 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…b579backed Cerundolo | 35c | 32.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Nakashima | 54c | 22.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Nakashima | 51c | 22.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 149 | 58.4%87 W · 62 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd945…fbd1backed Nakashima | 55c | 19.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.8wins | -0.47per pick | 60cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Nakashima vs Cerundolothis page
- Barcelona Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Juan Manuel CerundoloBrandon Nakashima won
- Brandon Nakashima vs. Juan Manuel Cerundolo: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Nakashima vs. Cerundolo: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5)Nakashima won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.