Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9207de8b0e8ee0600c5749a463a4f8643cd0bf6f9ef2cca979e1143a25885483
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nakashimaof Nakashima, Cerundolo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,893
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,299
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,893 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Nakashima | 32c | 797.75$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.44 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1c…f13cbacked Cerundolo | 75c | 577.36$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.97 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5462…fe43backed Nakashima | 63c | 151.17$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.93 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x449f…f386backed Cerundolo | 50c | 110.22$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.11 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Nakashima | 45c | 107.16$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.11 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…e926backed Cerundolo | 57c | 102.55$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.45 | 92 | 43.5%40 W · 52 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae9…facabacked Cerundolo | 74c | 99.82$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.83 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6249…cee9backed Cerundolo | 60c | 94.03$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.63 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Cerundolo | 41c | 64.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed Nakashima | 26c | 57.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.83 | 203 | 31%63 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Nakashima | 26c | 57.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.68 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Nakashima | 55c | 53.74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9855…b244backed Nakashima | 54c | 32.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…3f14backed Cerundolo | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x878c…23a2backed Cerundolo | 69c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5)this page
- Barcelona Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Juan Manuel CerundoloBrandon Nakashima won
- Brandon Nakashima vs. Juan Manuel Cerundolo: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Nakashima vs. Cerundolo: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Nakashima vs CerundoloNakashima won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.