South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0c0d3a14186bfe2e633f08bf780b2777213cee9ef132f80e49176f132d7f76f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,349
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,169
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,349 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 23c | 758.41$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.78 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 28c | 692.29$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.45 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 76c | 284.53$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.16 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 68c | 281.84$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.94 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb8…3058backed Yes | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…8b06backed No | 71c | 173.72$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.82 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…385abacked Yes | 30c | 156.67$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.67 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 70c | 146.46$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.64 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 8c | 143.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 448 | 43.8%196 W · 252 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked No | 72c | 141.83$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.12 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…4697backed Yes | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 71c | 107.39$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.75 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed Yes | 51c | 70.55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 133 | 73.7%98 W · 35 L | +22.2wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 72c | 54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 169 | 60.9%103 W · 66 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 70c | 50.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Yes | 29c | 50.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 117 | 63.2%74 W · 43 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed No | 68c | 49.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 111 | 56.8%63 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 52c | 42.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 72c | 42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 130 | 62.3%81 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…f39abacked Yes | 62c | 40.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 51c | 36.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 250 | 44%110 W · 140 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked No | 60c | 34.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…28d2backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 38c | 30.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 230 | 44.3%102 W · 128 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 51c | 26.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras end in a draw?this page
- Will Club Cerro Porteño win on 2026-04-29?No won
- Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-04-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.