Tennis · resolved market
Thionville: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Alex Molcan
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1b783a835b1935ee00979319fdc1e1a9b9067be4337fd30094936455cfb791c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nicolai Budkov Kjaerof Nicolai Budkov Kjaer, Alex Molcan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,113
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,958
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,113 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7dca…72a5backed Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | 61c | 2,131$1,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.4 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked Alex Molcan | 39c | 1,791$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.55 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Alex Molcan | 16c | 1,021$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.1 | 389 | 31.4%122 W · 267 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Alex Molcan | 24c | 894.37$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.06 | 7,968 | 50.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L | +92.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | 78c | 862.43$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.09 | 6,652 | 50.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L | +263.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Alex Molcan | 15c | 820.45$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.89 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Alex Molcan | 1c | 727.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Alex Molcan | 36c | 250.88$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.33 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Alex Molcan | 40c | 250$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.75 | 3,884 | 35%1,358 W · 2,526 L | +92.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…afbcbacked Alex Molcan | 44c | 171.6$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.79 | 145 | 41.4%60 W · 85 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Alex Molcan | 29c | 161.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a9…e22ebacked Alex Molcan | 42c | 120.93$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.93 | 1,284 | 39.2%503 W · 781 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9694…b7adbacked Alex Molcan | 42c | 119.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,058 | 59.5%1,225 W · 833 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Alex Molcan | 22c | 118.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 1,265 | 29.2%370 W · 895 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3af5…caebbacked Alex Molcan | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | 58c | 100.46$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 779 | 67.8%528 W · 251 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…e115backed Alex Molcan | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 146 | 39%57 W · 89 L | -14.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | 72c | 66$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 1,008 | 46%464 W · 544 L | -19.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | 58c | 57.01$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 1,980 | 46.2%915 W · 1,065 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | 69c | 56.67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | 67c | 53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 990 | 44.8%444 W · 546 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa41f…6100backed Alex Molcan | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 112 | 34.8%39 W · 73 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31dd…7159backed Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 903 | 40.2%363 W · 540 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Alex Molcan | 39c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 770 | 47.9%369 W · 401 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8874…0fa6backed Alex Molcan | 43c | 36.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | 57c | 29.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 1,832 | 53%971 W · 861 L | -45.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | 55c | 28.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | 67c | 26.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 813 | 49.1%399 W · 414 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Alex Molcan | 39c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 292 | 44.5%130 W · 162 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Alex Molcan | 39c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b78…d85fbacked Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.