Mls · resolved market
CF Montréal vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1f164ae0871e8458c748b975573d9248382ec05966a0be62c7267535acec917
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,936
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 39c | 2,042$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,246.33 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 61c | 1,950$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,189.5 | 1,278 | 47.9%612 W · 666 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16e…43afbacked Over | 55c | 1,111$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3824…e756backed Under | 39c | 498.1$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.26 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 46c | 429.81$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.69 | 3,018 | 43.6%1,316 W · 1,702 L | -28.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…490ebacked Over | 50c | 338.32$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.16 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 55c | 294.97$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.98 | 1,888 | 36.5%690 W · 1,198 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 49c | 271.63$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.06 | 1,002 | 40.2%403 W · 599 L | +12.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Under | 63c | 178.96$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.74 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 9c | 159.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 805 | 49.9%402 W · 403 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 65c | 150.6$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.77 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 62c | 149.98$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.99 | 210 | 48.1%101 W · 109 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf423…31c4backed Under | 39c | 121$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 24c | 113.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 199 | 41.7%83 W · 116 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Over | 76c | 113.67$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 37c | 106.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 229 | 41.5%95 W · 134 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10a…d6c2backed Over | 50c | 97.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.83 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 39c | 69.23$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 156 | 38.5%60 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 37c | 51.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.54 | 682 | 50.7%346 W · 336 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 59c | 47.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa146…6163backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Under | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 51c | 34.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 32c | 33.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Over | 69c | 28.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 36c | 27.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 532 | 24.1%128 W · 404 L | -24.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…9426backed Under | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbace…34d6backed Under | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec1e…0d9cbacked Over | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CF Montréal vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 3.5this page
- CF Montréal vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- CF Montréal vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CF Montréal vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: CF Montréal O/U 0.5Over won
- CF Montréal vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 1.5Over won
- CF Montréal vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 2.5Over won
- CF Montréal vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 4.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-1.5)Los Angeles Galaxy won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-2.5)Los Angeles Galaxy won
- Spread: Los Angeles Galaxy (-1.5)CF Montréal won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.