Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd24d04b98457336f0f627dc91ccab255336ee085b5f4214c3d4a4d1c50f0a037
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arkansas Razorbacksof Arkansas Razorbacks, LSU Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,037
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 52c | 5,000$2,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,421.86 | 417 | 52.5%219 W · 198 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked LSU Tigers | 48c | 4,923$2,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,383.94 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed LSU Tigers | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 574 | 48.3%277 W · 297 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed LSU Tigers | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 294 | 42.9%126 W · 168 L | -11.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 50c | 96$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked LSU Tigers | 49c | 94.39$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9689…be06backed LSU Tigers | 50c | 74.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x137b…d330backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 51c | 52.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…6849backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 50c | 47.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 51c | 47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 635 | 51.5%327 W · 308 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 52c | 46.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbc…3b01backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 52c | 46.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-4.5)this page
- Arkansas Razorbacks vs. LSU TigersArkansas Razorbacks won
- Arkansas Razorbacks vs. LSU Tigers: O/U 159.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.