Champions League · resolved market
Manchester City FC leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd24d07c9e83fbcf170dd97c4c066d0bc15375c3ffee991d0afb9447da3cb0ec0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,231
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,231 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc16…40a5backed Yes | 53c | 1,016$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 89 | 38.2%34 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 47c | 789.12$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.99 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 47c | 743.75$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.56 | 260 | 47.7%124 W · 136 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…3653backed Yes | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 48c | 531.84$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.18 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 46c | 472.85$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.8 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Yes | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 133 | 49.6%66 W · 67 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9a…5278backed Yes | 52c | 210.42$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d83…272cbacked Yes | 52c | 173.08$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0e…abd1backed No | 50c | 99.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.94 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x482c…4da1backed Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff8…942fbacked Yes | 54c | 92.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 49c | 89.17$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.48 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 49c | 84$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.87 | 99 | 66.7%66 W · 33 L | +13.5wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked No | 50c | 77$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.5wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 48c | 71.77$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.13 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Yes | 50c | 65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 198 | 56.6%112 W · 86 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Yes | 52c | 61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 293 | 50.5%148 W · 145 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 46c | 50.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 153 | 49.7%76 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 344 | 49.7%171 W · 173 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6f…77c1backed Yes | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 48c | 42.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 502 | 47.2%237 W · 265 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 72c | 40.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Yes | 51c | 25.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked No | 48c | 25.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3021…badabacked Yes | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03bc…530cbacked Yes | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -6.3wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Manchester City FC leading at halftime?this page
- Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF: Draw at halftime?Yes won
- Real Madrid CF leading at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.