South American Leagues · resolved market
Mazatlán FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd27a62335eb8e6eb642b5b57a0bcd3f3c0b99a6cd57063ba5df4da9772f74bc1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,598
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,455
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,598 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38f0…2768backed Under | 57c | 10,403$5,922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,922.03 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 43c | 6,987$3,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,982.69 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Over | 43c | 865.22$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.92 | 104 | 67.3%70 W · 34 L | +12.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 864.9$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.9 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 43c | 684.77$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.95 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 43c | 615.53$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.81 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 43c | 580$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.6 | 517 | 49.9%258 W · 259 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 46c | 499.93$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.96 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 23c | 423$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.71 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 43c | 407$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.99 | 307 | 54.7%168 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 34c | 299.37$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.07 | 148 | 24.3%36 W · 112 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Under | 55c | 212.1$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.65 | 111 | 56.8%63 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce1…2f49backed Over | 44c | 202.94$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.65 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 45c | 198.65$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.26 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 54c | 179.92$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.15 | 171 | 43.9%75 W · 96 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 43c | 105.36$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.6 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 43c | 100.9$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.51 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Under | 54c | 61.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 145 | 35.9%52 W · 93 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 54c | 54.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 242 | 53.3%129 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 40c | 45.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 411 | 45.5%187 W · 224 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 45c | 42.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Under | 53c | 42.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 44c | 39.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 45c | 32.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Over | 45c | 32.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0664…f7f0backed Over | 46c | 31.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.35per pick | 47cpaid | +117.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 308 | 58.4%180 W · 128 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Under | 55c | 20.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mazatlán FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Mazatlán FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Mazatlán FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Mazatlán FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Mazatlán FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-1.5)Mazatlán FC won
- Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-2.5)Mazatlán FC won
- Spread: Mazatlán FC (-1.5)Deportivo Toluca FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.