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South American Leagues · resolved market

Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Mazatlán FCof Deportivo Toluca FC, Mazatlán FC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,049
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,622

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,049 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4956…e2c7backed Mazatlán FC61c15,974$9,744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,229.758050%40 W · 40 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Deportivo Toluca FC39c6,219$2,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,426.398,17548.7%3,980 W · 4,195 L+27.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Deportivo Toluca FC39c1,758$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.743,44651.4%1,771 W · 1,675 L+21.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0940…3640backed Deportivo Toluca FC39c1,153$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Deportivo Toluca FC39c1,031$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.161,32450.1%663 W · 661 L-14.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Deportivo Toluca FC46c999.89$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.959953.5%53 W · 46 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Deportivo Toluca FC39c969.18$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.9850746.7%237 W · 270 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdfe…030ebacked Deportivo Toluca FC47c968.2$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.05560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+52.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x94a5…4eb8backed Deportivo Toluca FC45c820.63$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.283354.5%18 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+21.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Mazatlán FC56c667$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2921,70252%885 W · 817 L+21.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Deportivo Toluca FC39c637.77$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.7313049.2%64 W · 66 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Deportivo Toluca FC39c545.28$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.6622853.1%121 W · 107 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6077…3231backed Deportivo Toluca FC39c494.05$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.684555.6%25 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid+9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Deportivo Toluca FC39c481.68$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.852,59839.3%1,022 W · 1,576 L-26.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Mazatlán FC73c423$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.211,05549.3%520 W · 535 L+14.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Deportivo Toluca FC27c404.47$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.2199259.1%586 W · 406 L+108.7wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+26.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Deportivo Toluca FC39c308.29$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.2352649.8%262 W · 264 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Deportivo Toluca FC39c258.69$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8965058%377 W · 273 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d05…f729backed Deportivo Toluca FC39c211.13$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.3414535.9%52 W · 93 L+0.5wins0.00per pick36cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Deportivo Toluca FC39c208.12$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.1741256.6%233 W · 179 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Mazatlán FC62c176.54$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.473,80738.4%1,463 W · 2,344 L-29.0wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd208…29e6backed Deportivo Toluca FC39c165.19$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.428851.1%45 W · 43 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ce1…2f49backed Mazatlán FC61c163.91$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.931631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.17per pick48cpaid-32.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x303a…7c84backed Deportivo Toluca FC45c160.52$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4e8…ff03backed Deportivo Toluca FC39c151.8$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.212259%72 W · 50 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x234b…f36dbacked Deportivo Toluca FC39c134.31$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3833266.3%220 W · 112 L+24.8wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Mazatlán FC54c131.3$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.417143.9%75 W · 96 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Mazatlán FC54c123.49$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.8157157.8%330 W · 241 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Mazatlán FC56c105$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.9947758.1%277 W · 200 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d80…a4aabacked Mazatlán FC60c82.47$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.68757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Deportivo Toluca FC28c81.35$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8341145.5%187 W · 224 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5dd…69ddbacked Deportivo Toluca FC39c74.74$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.15633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-44.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Deportivo Toluca FC38c74.19$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1933745.4%153 W · 184 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Deportivo Toluca FC39c74.18$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9324253.3%129 W · 113 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Deportivo Toluca FC45c69.97$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8416347.9%78 W · 85 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32b5…b692backed Deportivo Toluca FC39c66.65$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.991931.6%6 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.17per pick49cpaid-33.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4880…5626backed Deportivo Toluca FC39c61.31$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.913756.8%21 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x669d…f27abacked Deportivo Toluca FC44c58.95$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.94425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-67.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Deportivo Toluca FC39c57.81$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.555,82145.4%2,642 W · 3,179 L+97.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bcd…ac63backed Deportivo Toluca FC39c52.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.374271.4%30 W · 12 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Mazatlán FC61c50.53$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.6626160.9%159 W · 102 L+20.4wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2ddd…73b2backed Deportivo Toluca FC39c49.41$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2716859.5%100 W · 68 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5bb…0fe1backed Deportivo Toluca FC39c49.41$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2738861.3%238 W · 150 L+14.5wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2068…d19bbacked Deportivo Toluca FC38c48.64$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.48250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e49…ae9dbacked Deportivo Toluca FC45c47.04$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.122142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-17.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9f28…d173backed Deportivo Toluca FC39c46.24$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.033966.7%26 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf472…fd6ebacked Mazatlán FC62c39.4$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9715945.9%73 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Deportivo Toluca FC29c38.88$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3125044%110 W · 140 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1cc…28a0backed Mazatlán FC80c37.17$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5310966.1%72 W · 37 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaedd…ad5bbacked Deportivo Toluca FC39c35.7$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9228665%186 W · 100 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Deportivo Toluca FC39c30.69$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.914824.3%36 W · 112 L-8.7wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8941…83d7backed Deportivo Toluca FC45c29.01$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0511059.1%65 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35d1…1f70backed Deportivo Toluca FC39c28.36$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0619761.9%122 W · 75 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x34de…8e6bbacked Deportivo Toluca FC45c28.04$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.62450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7f9…29a9backed Deportivo Toluca FC39c26.67$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.420958.4%122 W · 87 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6001…0457backed Mazatlán FC54c25.52$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.747269.4%50 W · 22 L+12.3wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+37.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed Mazatlán FC61c20.27$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$810467.3%70 W · 34 L+12.8wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+25%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked Mazatlán FC71c18.49$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4144959%265 W · 184 L+22.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Mazatlán FC74c14.96$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.9663657.5%366 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.