South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22557137612c734db4a07103064485cd629b5c1d9c680125227169cfdd85a49c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mazatlán FCof Deportivo Toluca FC, Mazatlán FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,049
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,049 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4956…e2c7backed Mazatlán FC | 61c | 15,974$9,744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,229.75 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 39c | 6,219$2,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,426.39 | 8,175 | 48.7%3,980 W · 4,195 L | +27.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Deportivo Toluca FC | 39c | 1,758$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.74 | 3,446 | 51.4%1,771 W · 1,675 L | +21.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0940…3640backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 39c | 1,153$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 39c | 1,031$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.16 | 1,324 | 50.1%663 W · 661 L | -14.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 46c | 999.89$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.95 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 39c | 969.18$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.98 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfe…030ebacked Deportivo Toluca FC | 47c | 968.2$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 45c | 820.63$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.28 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Mazatlán FC | 56c | 667$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292 | 1,702 | 52%885 W · 817 L | +21.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Deportivo Toluca FC | 39c | 637.77$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.73 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Deportivo Toluca FC | 39c | 545.28$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.66 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…3231backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 39c | 494.05$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.68 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 39c | 481.68$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.85 | 2,598 | 39.3%1,022 W · 1,576 L | -26.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Mazatlán FC | 73c | 423$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.21 | 1,055 | 49.3%520 W · 535 L | +14.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 27c | 404.47$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.21 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 39c | 308.29$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.23 | 526 | 49.8%262 W · 264 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 39c | 258.69$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.89 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 39c | 211.13$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.34 | 145 | 35.9%52 W · 93 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Deportivo Toluca FC | 39c | 208.12$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.17 | 412 | 56.6%233 W · 179 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Mazatlán FC | 62c | 176.54$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.47 | 3,807 | 38.4%1,463 W · 2,344 L | -29.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 39c | 165.19$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.42 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce1…2f49backed Mazatlán FC | 61c | 163.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x303a…7c84backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 45c | 160.52$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 39c | 151.8$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 122 | 59%72 W · 50 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Deportivo Toluca FC | 39c | 134.31$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.38 | 332 | 66.3%220 W · 112 L | +24.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Mazatlán FC | 54c | 131.3$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.4 | 171 | 43.9%75 W · 96 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Mazatlán FC | 54c | 123.49$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.81 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Mazatlán FC | 56c | 105$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 477 | 58.1%277 W · 200 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d80…a4aabacked Mazatlán FC | 60c | 82.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Deportivo Toluca FC | 28c | 81.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 411 | 45.5%187 W · 224 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dd…69ddbacked Deportivo Toluca FC | 39c | 74.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Deportivo Toluca FC | 38c | 74.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 337 | 45.4%153 W · 184 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Deportivo Toluca FC | 39c | 74.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 242 | 53.3%129 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Deportivo Toluca FC | 45c | 69.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 163 | 47.9%78 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…b692backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 39c | 66.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4880…5626backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 39c | 61.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…f27abacked Deportivo Toluca FC | 44c | 58.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Deportivo Toluca FC | 39c | 57.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 5,821 | 45.4%2,642 W · 3,179 L | +97.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcd…ac63backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 39c | 52.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Mazatlán FC | 61c | 50.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 261 | 60.9%159 W · 102 L | +20.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 39c | 49.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 39c | 49.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 388 | 61.3%238 W · 150 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2068…d19bbacked Deportivo Toluca FC | 38c | 48.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Deportivo Toluca FC | 45c | 47.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 39c | 46.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Mazatlán FC | 62c | 39.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 159 | 45.9%73 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Deportivo Toluca FC | 29c | 38.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 250 | 44%110 W · 140 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…28a0backed Mazatlán FC | 80c | 37.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Deportivo Toluca FC | 39c | 35.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 286 | 65%186 W · 100 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 39c | 30.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 148 | 24.3%36 W · 112 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 45c | 29.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 110 | 59.1%65 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 39c | 28.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 197 | 61.9%122 W · 75 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34de…8e6bbacked Deportivo Toluca FC | 45c | 28.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Deportivo Toluca FC | 39c | 26.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Mazatlán FC | 54c | 25.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 72 | 69.4%50 W · 22 L | +12.3wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Mazatlán FC | 61c | 20.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 104 | 67.3%70 W · 34 L | +12.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Mazatlán FC | 71c | 18.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 449 | 59%265 W · 184 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Mazatlán FC | 74c | 14.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-1.5)this page
- Mazatlán FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Mazatlán FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Mazatlán FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Mazatlán FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Mazatlán FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-2.5)Mazatlán FC won
- Spread: Mazatlán FC (-1.5)Deportivo Toluca FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.