Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-11-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd295665ee26c4e47628d5c58daf17d0128ea26f6ddbcf89822f6903e2b3d49fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 60c | 2,688$1,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,619.29 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 44c | 2,235$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,246.87 | 201 | 32.3%65 W · 136 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9117…cecabacked No | 60c | 353.6$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.8 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -4.1wins | -0.51per pick | 63cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 40c | 305.35$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.77 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 62c | 257.39$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.31 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 11c | 247.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.48 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Yes | 43c | 230.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.94 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -8.0wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…32a0backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed No | 60c | 166.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 40c | 153$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.8 | 190 | 27.4%52 W · 138 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…8502backed Yes | 24c | 116.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.67 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…0730backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf64…92bdbacked Yes | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…3e9fbacked Yes | 40c | 54.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e2…4459backed Yes | 43c | 46.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…e514backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7849…bf63backed Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb1…fa48backed No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 41c | 30.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 197 | 36%71 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed No | 61c | 27.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-11-06?this page
- Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw?No won
- Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2025-11-06?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.