Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2025-11-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x112e22bb8503883196f5a6d1dd50605638cbcb84947b98e0d4c5e1923a6bb5c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,111
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc996…bb65backed No | 37c | 2,164$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,372.57 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebf1…1d5dbacked Yes | 67c | 1,495$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b0…8c4cbacked Yes | 71c | 1,414$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 39c | 874.63$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.7 | 201 | 32.3%65 W · 136 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 819$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.18 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb73b…7155backed Yes | 61c | 491.8$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 73c | 397.04$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.2 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 35c | 359.55$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.91 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 71c | 305.51$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.98 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Yes | 61c | 244.1$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.68 | 200 | 42%84 W · 116 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…d383backed Yes | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57dd…6ab4backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 23cpaid | +214.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Yes | 27c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 68c | 146.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.78 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…50bcbacked Yes | 27c | 110$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 190 | 27.4%52 W · 138 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3928…78d0backed Yes | 30c | 99.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…367fbacked Yes | 27c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Yes | 28c | 85.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f9…86ecbacked Yes | 25c | 73.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd611…63fcbacked No | 75c | 64.4$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b0…b71fbacked Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 70c | 59.52$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe478…610ebacked Yes | 27c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 30cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…b655backed Yes | 30c | 50.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…3e38backed Yes | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…e0c1backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00c9…7708backed Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 72c | 28.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x428b…d8aebacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe532…f9b9backed Yes | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2025-11-06?this page
- Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw?No won
- Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-11-06?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.