Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will AJ Auxerre vs. FC Metz end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2ef11b678c5a7684884760daa5b5a021fe482ce9597dfcbb88bb8420a0cb69b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,157
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,780
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,157 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 16c | 3,443$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.91 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 79c | 1,512$1,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.07 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64ff…8f70backed Yes | 28c | 375$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 16c | 303.93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed Yes | 11c | 263.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x303b…53cabacked Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6b…7b61backed No | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 27c | 136.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 143 | 46.9%67 W · 76 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9de2…3adbbacked No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 78c | 136.36$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Yes | 16c | 104.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb92d…bbcabacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 20c | 75.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Yes | 28c | 63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 75c | 59.65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…7ca5backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5956…e127backed No | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c3…eb62backed No | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 68cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91fa…bd81backed No | 74c | 14.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AJ Auxerre vs. FC Metz end in a draw?this page
- Will AJ Auxerre win on 2025-12-07?Yes won
- Will FC Metz win on 2025-12-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.