Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2025-12-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9266f01ae9e3da274ad7bf89a21a80c4ea4830967f719d7388e605f5f722f42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $167,294
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $175,915
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $167,294 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 32c | 90,000$28,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,799.98 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Yes | 79c | 55,243$43,772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,470.95 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 47c | 15,744$7,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,344.55 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 63c | 13,094$8,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,908.63 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 61c | 10,602$6,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,424.78 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 27c | 9,649$2,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,598.77 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 56c | 7,477$4,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,312.36 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0c…cfc9backed Yes | 41c | 7,000$2,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,129.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ad…be8cbacked No | 53c | 6,597$3,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,496.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 53c | 5,120$2,709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,410.32 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 68c | 2,979$2,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.71 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 47c | 1,702$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.13 | 190 | 55.8%106 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf24…15ecbacked No | 6c | 1,616$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.39 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 63c | 1,514$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.04 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd371…4478backed No | 9c | 1,246$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 37c | 1,202$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.14 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ff…62ccbacked Yes | 48c | 1,032$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.91 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 49c | 904.79$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.6 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37ef…56f2backed Yes | 46c | 750$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +4.7wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 10c | 739.64$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.29 | 260 | 40.4%105 W · 155 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed No | 13c | 693.15$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.91 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31dd…3c7abacked Yes | 56c | 532.44$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.44 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 49c | 502.04$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.04 | 232 | 50.9%118 W · 114 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 51c | 495$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.45 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed No | 52c | 466.61$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.64 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Yes | 47c | 430$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.9 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 15c | 400.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.61 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 12c | 311.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 89 | 76.4%68 W · 21 L | +17.9wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Yes | 48c | 250$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 5c | 247.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 350 | 37.7%132 W · 218 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Yes | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed Yes | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Yes | 69c | 170.51$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.86 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd934…a00abacked Yes | 74c | 160$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 48c | 158.34$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.66 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +6.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed No | 51c | 147.87$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.41 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -6.5wins | -0.19per pick | 43cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 56c | 141.69$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59eb…fa33backed No | 21c | 122.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 48c | 106.96$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.14 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…6921backed Yes | 48c | 106.25$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a2…50a4backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…3d9abacked Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6b…7b61backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked No | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7f…91ebbacked Yes | 47c | 67.55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe1…1a78backed No | 40c | 59.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86f6…eafebacked Yes | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 50c | 47.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 49c | 42.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 31c | 41.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Yes | 49c | 35.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed No | 51c | 34.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 123 | 39.8%49 W · 74 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4049backed Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 46cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Yes | 66c | 30.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2f…443fbacked Yes | 39c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +116%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked No | 38c | 27.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Yes | 48c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a76…51b7backed No | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed No | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 47c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Yes | 48c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.40per pick | 48cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x91fa…bd81backed Yes | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976c…7634backed Yes | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AJ Auxerre win on 2025-12-07?this page
- Will AJ Auxerre vs. FC Metz end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Metz win on 2025-12-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.