Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2fbb7fac0b51a288062a0d8d3f98409126e95569b9c05259e51d600e2726ae5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,203
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,898
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,203 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x828b…87a6backed Yes | 8c | 874.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…63bebacked Yes | 11c | 356.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 5c | 208.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 12c | 148.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 128.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80cb…4629backed Yes | 16c | 126.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 153 | 21.6%33 W · 120 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 29c | 120$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 17c | 117.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 13c | 115.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 17c | 71.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 27c | 68.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 20c | 64.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 64.06$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 24c | 54.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 70c | 48.54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 29c | 45.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 29c | 44.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82eb…efe0backed No | 71c | 34.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 74c | 28.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3412…e651backed No | 80c | 25.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 69cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…922ebacked Yes | 42c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 64c | 23.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c99…94f6backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2768…92d1backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab2…5d06backed No | 72c | 19.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…f7a9backed No | 80c | 18.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbf…002fbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | +19.9wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +424.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xef6a…18e8backed No | 75c | 14.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.