TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

NCAA Tournament 2024: Will one #1 seed make it to the Semifinals?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,205
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,170

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,205 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaaf4…7883backed No67c3,258$2,167 inWon+$1,090.762240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked No72c500$360 inWon+$1401926.3%5 W · 14 L-4.3wins-0.23per pick49cpaid-52.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xfb67…4a48backed Yes30c245$74 inLost-$73.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-68.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No71c205$146 inWon+$59.062412.5%3 W · 21 L-4.6wins-0.19per pick31cpaid-68.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes37c190$70 inLost-$70.31369.6%13 W · 123 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-78.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b3e…662cbacked Yes29c124.14$36 inLost-$361421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick36cpaid-47.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd279…e09dbacked Yes38c100$38 inLost-$381020%2 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-40.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x39a2…a50dbacked Yes45c50$23 inLost-$22.5862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+15.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3756…ed8cbacked Yes40c50$20 inLost-$2090%0 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.