CS2 · resolved market
IEM Dallas: Aurora vs. HEROIC
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd37b6060b179cf3c8ea0c8a16c161338c12b4e2118c24519472c093d6ae6c4e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, HEROIC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,273
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,476
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,273 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked HEROIC | 49c | 2,595$1,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280.57 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Aurora | 37c | 2,000$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,261.1 | 160 | 33.8%54 W · 106 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1952…c5c8backed Aurora | 63c | 1,590$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.52 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9a…06d0backed Aurora | 69c | 721.19$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.19 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed HEROIC | 50c | 437.12$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.87 | 754 | 50.5%381 W · 373 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed Aurora | 45c | 350$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194 | 633 | 45.2%286 W · 347 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed HEROIC | 35c | 299.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.99 | 567 | 38.8%220 W · 347 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…d19ebacked HEROIC | 36c | 280$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Aurora | 45c | 239.11$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.11 | 589 | 61.3%361 W · 228 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed HEROIC | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d03…4efabacked Aurora | 63c | 177.78$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.78 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 58cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…8dd0backed Aurora | 65c | 154.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 172 | 43%74 W · 98 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d4…8d3cbacked HEROIC | 69c | 145$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.85 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | -9.7wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29db…ae12backed HEROIC | 38c | 140$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1326…4289backed HEROIC | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed HEROIC | 15c | 93.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked HEROIC | 61c | 85$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…0055backed Aurora | 28c | 42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 178 | 47.8%85 W · 93 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Aurora | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7514…49bebacked Aurora | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 317 | 58%184 W · 133 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a26…29dabacked HEROIC | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb7…c204backed Aurora | 74c | 28.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa72f…ada8backed HEROIC | 73c | 27.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 55cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…3eeabacked HEROIC | 50c | 25.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x863d…4770backed HEROIC | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked HEROIC | 70c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 1,393 | 65.9%918 W · 475 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.