South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Lanús win on 2025-10-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3a17e3004e15201fffecfb25a3562863a9fb781628a1f3c5d876ca34af1d42c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 46c | 15,000$6,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,100 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 54c | 14,776$7,979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,979.04 | 63 | 63.5%40 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb63…8eecbacked Yes | 44c | 4,247$1,869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,378.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 54cpaid | +93%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x720e…5a2ebacked No | 56c | 4,247$2,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,378.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 30c | 2,076$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.59 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c3…3e00backed Yes | 47c | 1,928$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,027.66 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…770cbacked Yes | 43c | 1,176$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.32 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ca…3d37backed No | 55c | 700$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904c…1902backed Yes | 45c | 700$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed No | 54c | 600$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 57c | 585.49$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.39 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked No | 53c | 522.66$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.01 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 41c | 492.36$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.49 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Yes | 44c | 450$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e99…dea0backed No | 54c | 370$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…23a4backed Yes | 46c | 370$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 56c | 252.63$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.63 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Yes | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 36c | 225$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Yes | 74c | 174.14$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f47…0043backed Yes | 44c | 125$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…9ab4backed Yes | 42c | 98.24$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.98 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 42c | 85.95$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.85 | 160 | 55.6%89 W · 71 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5240…8f9cbacked Yes | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Yes | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb1…4df1backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +43%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x17ae…ccf1backed Yes | 50c | 50.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed No | 51c | 44.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 144 | 22.9%33 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb456…1774backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7e…da31backed Yes | 44c | 36.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 56cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7d…2d33backed Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48c8…43dcbacked Yes | 50c | 24.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb06…b969backed Yes | 51c | 20.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Lanús win on 2025-10-17?this page
- Will CA Lanús vs. CD Godoy Cruz Antonio Tomba end in a draw?No won
- Will CD Godoy Cruz Antonio Tomba win on 2025-10-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.