Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3b4c8e3018ff0476be95ac8ad3d8a0bfb65f5d02367400093cf9d1084b9254f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,259
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,481
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,259 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 52c | 152.84$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.88 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 121.04$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 62c | 117.68$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.36 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 42c | 111.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 45c | 90.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 59c | 81.61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 19c | 77.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 39c | 76.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 60.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 59c | 59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 56c | 47.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 42c | 45.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 41c | 42.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 49c | 40.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 39.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 57c | 33.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 41c | 33.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 57c | 32.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 48c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed8…cad8backed No | 58c | 25.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…c3debacked Yes | 52c | 23.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -18.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked Yes | 60c | 22.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 61c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 52c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c27…ee11backed Yes | 50c | 20.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 60c | 19.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 61c | 17.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 61c | 17.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 68°F or higher on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on May 16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.