Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Winter Bear vs Level UP (BO3) - European Pro League Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3f9428f601fd3911f0524928cbcb62b2bdcf741b4563498db13bd28fd9c45ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Level UPof Winter Bear, Level UP
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,286
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,286 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8bec…7800backed Winter Bear | 65c | 832.99$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.45 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed Level UP | 35c | 371.43$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.43 | 189 | 54%102 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…2f73backed Winter Bear | 56c | 359.71$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…16e3backed Level UP | 44c | 255.04$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.82 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7612…b680backed Level UP | 35c | 212$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.8 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 52cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x74e3…59cdbacked Level UP | 56c | 175.22$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.08 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x53fc…76d7backed Level UP | 35c | 167$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.55 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Winter Bear | 57c | 147.62$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.85 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d3…b8debacked Winter Bear | 52c | 144.64$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 700 | 52.3%366 W · 334 L | +47.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadf8…1e82backed Level UP | 35c | 89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.85 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Level UP | 76c | 84.12$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed Level UP | 38c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13af…b19fbacked Level UP | 70c | 50.25$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb68…c695backed Level UP | 35c | 45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5c…ab22backed Winter Bear | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…04fcbacked Level UP | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Winter Bear | 34c | 39.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed Winter Bear | 37c | 37.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 285 | 44.9%128 W · 157 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Level UP | 64c | 36.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Winter Bear | 45c | 34.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Winter Bear | 52c | 30.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…590abacked Winter Bear | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 238 | 49.6%118 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc92b…ad57backed Level UP | 52c | 20.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40ca…36d3backed Level UP | 63c | 16.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Winter Bear vs Level UP (BO3) - European Pro League Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: Winter Bear vs Level UP - Game 2 WinnerLevel UP won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.