Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs. Tundra Esports
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3fb73f6b5da9eeba8c48d0fb36581f32721c55c13c4fbaa3c491049cb25908d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Spiritof Team Spirit, Tundra Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,664
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,325
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,664 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfcca…c460backed Team Spirit | 72c | 3,300$2,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924.48 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Tundra Esports | 31c | 3,249$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.42 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Tundra Esports | 42c | 1,765$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.39 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Tundra Esports | 28c | 1,518$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6e…413abacked Team Spirit | 67c | 1,380$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Team Spirit | 51c | 897$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.57 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…b1dfbacked Team Spirit | 54c | 756.58$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.2 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Tundra Esports | 4c | 745.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…5bd1backed Team Spirit | 48c | 663.27$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.27 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Team Spirit | 65c | 600$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Tundra Esports | 49c | 553.07$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.49 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa04…274cbacked Tundra Esports | 40c | 505.39$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd927…af11backed Tundra Esports | 44c | 454.06$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Tundra Esports | 16c | 400$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Team Spirit | 70c | 289.67$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.67 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e63…9e38backed Tundra Esports | 58c | 230$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.9 | 345 | 61.2%211 W · 134 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…b717backed Team Spirit | 63c | 201.18$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.18 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…5f5bbacked Team Spirit | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Tundra Esports | 27c | 178.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…c0dabacked Team Spirit | 40c | 159.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d6…4a00backed Tundra Esports | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac3e…9decbacked Team Spirit | 69c | 145$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.95 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd8…4bf1backed Team Spirit | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Tundra Esports | 28c | 104.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9a…06d0backed Team Spirit | 72c | 101.94$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.54 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Team Spirit | 72c | 98.74$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 269 | 58.7%158 W · 111 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14a2…e231backed Tundra Esports | 45c | 93.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cad…888fbacked Tundra Esports | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Tundra Esports | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Team Spirit | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Team Spirit | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe157…4bebbacked Team Spirit | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaca…51d1backed Tundra Esports | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf815…4f3ebacked Team Spirit | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 274 | 66.4%182 W · 92 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8402backed Team Spirit | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c30…6298backed Team Spirit | 69c | 14.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.