Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Dayton Flyers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4172648591b910855c516a5d016f0600e8aba8eef0a9ef888625c91fce612bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dayton Flyersof Dayton Flyers, Davidson Wildcats
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,507
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,611
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,507 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x94d8…8835backed Dayton Flyers | 58c | 2,061$1,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.8 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Davidson Wildcats | 42c | 1,737$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.59 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Davidson Wildcats | 43c | 1,075$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.49 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Dayton Flyers | 56c | 863$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.83 | 1,155 | 50.4%582 W · 573 L | -34.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Davidson Wildcats | 43c | 290$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.7 | 918 | 48.9%449 W · 469 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Davidson Wildcats | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Dayton Flyers | 49c | 213.46$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.11 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4683…1218backed Dayton Flyers | 58c | 206.42$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.42 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Davidson Wildcats | 44c | 205.57$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Davidson Wildcats | 53c | 200$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Davidson Wildcats | 49c | 193.94$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.06 | 558 | 40.3%225 W · 333 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Dayton Flyers | 55c | 130$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 315 | 37.8%119 W · 196 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Dayton Flyers | 49c | 122$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.41 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Dayton Flyers | 51c | 115.32$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.96 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Dayton Flyers | 55c | 85$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 383 | 51.7%198 W · 185 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…e0bfbacked Dayton Flyers | 77c | 64.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Davidson Wildcats | 44c | 37.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 1,446 | 43.4%627 W · 819 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Dayton Flyers | 51c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 358 | 52%186 W · 172 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Dayton Flyers | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 343 | 43.4%149 W · 194 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Dayton Flyers | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x571a…4834backed Dayton Flyers | 58c | 17.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Dayton Flyers (-3.5)this page
- Davidson Wildcats vs. Dayton FlyersDayton Flyers won
- Davidson Wildcats vs. Dayton Flyers: O/U 139.5Under won
- Spread: Dayton Flyers (-4.5)Dayton Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.