Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Keys (-1.5) vs Shnaider (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4187503c00a01f2b3900dbf8af8342abc484c290fa4ee0cdfaea3c2a42566b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shnaiderof Keys, Shnaider
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,399
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,747
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,399 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb946…2671backed Shnaider | 64c | 1,972$1,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.69 | 578 | 42.4%245 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ae…a3d4backed Keys | 36c | 1,111$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Shnaider | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 265 | 55.8%148 W · 117 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…40a5backed Keys | 36c | 825$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 1,118 | 42.8%479 W · 639 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Shnaider | 65c | 808$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.8 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c1…7047backed Shnaider | 65c | 756.77$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.87 | 798 | 55.9%446 W · 352 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfac1…3176backed Keys | 36c | 680.56$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…c629backed Keys | 47c | 649.99$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.5 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Shnaider | 53c | 585.84$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.34 | 1,076 | 60.4%650 W · 426 L | +24.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Keys | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 512 | 36.5%187 W · 325 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Shnaider | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 580 | 45.9%266 W · 314 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9f…31e3backed Shnaider | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -5.2wins | -0.29per pick | 57cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x11c9…1184backed Keys | 37c | 132.43$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 81 | 18.5%15 W · 66 L | -11.4wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -39%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Keys | 35c | 107.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 1,245 | 51.9%646 W · 599 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…fd36backed Shnaider | 65c | 107.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 156 | 55.8%87 W · 69 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Shnaider | 53c | 104.26$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…bb1dbacked Keys | 47c | 104.26$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Keys | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Shnaider | 53c | 64.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Keys | 36c | 60.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 193 | 46.6%90 W · 103 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Shnaider | 65c | 47.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked Shnaider | 64c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 182 | 44%80 W · 102 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Shnaider | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 1,639 | 55.1%903 W · 736 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…eb6bbacked Shnaider | 65c | 31.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa76…ca4fbacked Shnaider | 65c | 22.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Shnaider | 65c | 20.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 752 | 62%466 W · 286 L | +25.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Shnaider | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 935 | 57.3%536 W · 399 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…6a58backed Shnaider | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 72 | 61.1%44 W · 28 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Keys (-1.5) vs Shnaider (+1.5)this page
- Keys vs. Shnaider: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Keys vs. Shnaider: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Keys vs. Shnaider: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Madison Keys vs. Diana Shnaider: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana ShnaiderDiana Shnaider won
- Set 1 Winner: Keys vs ShnaiderShnaider won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.