Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Keys vs Shnaider
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2afb2be256379f405039ded6f911d9e67c851cf074b2e4a9385f4b7481fd61d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shnaiderof Keys, Shnaider
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,291
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,291 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Keys | 64c | 902.37$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.35 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87b1…7da1backed Shnaider | 69c | 689.42$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.77 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.28per pick | 30cpaid | +199.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Shnaider | 33c | 535$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.45 | 1,148 | 53%608 W · 540 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ac…7deebacked Shnaider | 38c | 524.28$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.32 | 332 | 53.6%178 W · 154 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17e2…d472backed Keys | 46c | 418.48$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.5 | 155 | 32.9%51 W · 104 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Shnaider | 44c | 286.87$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.47 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x585e…019fbacked Shnaider | 50c | 248.03$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.03 | 101 | 52.5%53 W · 48 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…ad68backed Keys | 53c | 228.71$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.5 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Keys | 16c | 226.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 176 | 17%30 W · 146 L | -15.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Keys | 46c | 206.74$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 653 | 46.4%303 W · 350 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Shnaider | 45c | 182.97$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.37 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…9dbabacked Shnaider | 56c | 175.8$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.35 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Keys | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 512 | 36.5%187 W · 325 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…6a9fbacked Keys | 56c | 158.41$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.71 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95a3…cc1bbacked Shnaider | 33c | 150$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6766…0db2backed Shnaider | 38c | 130.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.78 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Keys | 62c | 114$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.68 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Shnaider | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 868 | 35.4%307 W · 561 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Shnaider | 34c | 99.19$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.47 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Keys | 59c | 84.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Keys | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Shnaider | 43c | 77.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.97 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…79e0backed Keys | 57c | 69.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 181 | 58.6%106 W · 75 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Keys | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdecb…e058backed Keys | 76c | 64.47$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Keys | 50c | 62.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a8…b1f7backed Keys | 46c | 54.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 287 | 38.3%110 W · 177 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Shnaider | 42c | 52.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 374 | 36.4%136 W · 238 L | -16.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Keys | 55c | 48.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Keys | 58c | 41.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Keys | 58c | 34.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 632 | 52.8%334 W · 298 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ca…16cebacked Shnaider | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2e…be44backed Keys | 57c | 33.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…fe16backed Shnaider | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 710 | 21.3%151 W · 559 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb75e…1737backed Keys | 62c | 30.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 244 | 46.3%113 W · 131 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a48…ba21backed Shnaider | 78c | 29.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Keys | 60c | 28.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 391 | 61.4%240 W · 151 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Shnaider | 42c | 26.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Keys | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Keys | 57c | 23.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Keys | 62c | 16.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 743 | 46.3%344 W · 399 L | -28.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Keys vs Shnaiderthis page
- Keys vs. Shnaider: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Keys vs. Shnaider: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Keys vs. Shnaider: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Madison Keys vs. Diana Shnaider: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana ShnaiderDiana Shnaider won
- Set Handicap: Keys (-1.5) vs Shnaider (+1.5)Shnaider won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.