Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Michigan State vs. Iowa
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4362b8b27e276cf4b29ddb24ae37b8354c1a4545f0d2b0c9b135fb3a308a25b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michigan Stateof Michigan State, Iowa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $99,943
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,943 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Iowa | 1c | 98,485$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.85 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda31…8e56backed Michigan State | 74c | 600$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Iowa | 26c | 534.73$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.72 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dad…0668backed Michigan State | 74c | 214.73$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.83 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +42%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Michigan State | 55c | 189$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.05 | 205 | 48.8%100 W · 105 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Iowa | 26c | 114.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Iowa | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 605 | 51.4%311 W · 294 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f81…ee67backed Iowa | 24c | 85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…8060backed Iowa | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61b3…f99cbacked Michigan State | 76c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeac7…fec6backed Michigan State | 73c | 36.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d85…1c3dbacked Michigan State | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb5…6b39backed Michigan State | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b0…62f5backed Michigan State | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ae…10c4backed Michigan State | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…1c13backed Michigan State | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…f0ebbacked Michigan State | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea17…4652backed Michigan State | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 62cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.