Mls · resolved market
Colorado Rapids SC vs. Austin FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd45036f337fc6041414f6269868019fd61e624b6773e1ab6ea126a473910b1f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 66c | 6,369$4,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,183.3 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 39c | 4,101$1,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,596.97 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 18c | 3,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 7c | 2,690$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.3 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d4…23e8backed Under | 54c | 1,448$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a1d…8986backed Under | 55c | 857$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.65 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 45c | 750$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 146 | 52.1%76 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced4…5055backed Over | 12c | 609.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.7 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…7fd6backed Over | 23c | 586.96$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 367.95$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.81 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 57c | 284.02$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.89 | 394 | 35.8%141 W · 253 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed Under | 44c | 251$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.56 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10a…d6c2backed Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Under | 78c | 103.03$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 47 | 80.9%38 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 70cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 25c | 92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Over | 56c | 81.63$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.71 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 56c | 78.21$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 73c | 68.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 196 | 42.9%84 W · 112 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 32c | 63.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5df…50d7backed Under | 44c | 56.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +115.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9805…a997backed Over | 57c | 51.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e82…7ab7backed Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +5.3wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x08ae…3a89backed Over | 58c | 30.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 45c | 28.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb4…d481backed Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 49c | 22.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb9…c170backed Under | 80c | 12.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 80cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. Austin FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. Austin FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. Austin FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. Austin FC: Colorado Rapids SC O/U 1.5Under won
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. Austin FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. Austin FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. Austin FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. Austin FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. Austin FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rapids SC (-1.5)Austin FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.