Other European Leagues · resolved market
SBV Excelsior vs. PEC Zwolle: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd465a7649e63cbc89614151b6bfee223e44f9f554ad18ee050bfc7dc014aaaec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,083
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,083 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa99f…9c1ebacked Under | 3c | 2,000$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 50c | 989.11$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.36 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 53c | 943.51$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.45 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 47c | 510$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.05 | 853 | 40.1%342 W · 511 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 301.25$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.13 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 202.76$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.05 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Under | 41c | 113$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Under | 41c | 101$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.41 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed Over | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 59 | 20.3%12 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Over | 50c | 97.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.83 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 30c | 95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…a045backed Under | 41c | 93$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Under | 27c | 59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…21eebacked Over | 61c | 57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -9.3wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 46c | 51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd67a…304cbacked Over | 59c | 39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09db…7384backed Over | 59c | 39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb736…1946backed Over | 59c | 37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xede6…89c4backed Over | 59c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 68cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Under | 41c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6c…2854backed Over | 59c | 33.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 40c | 33.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 473 | 25.4%120 W · 353 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 252 | 63.5%160 W · 92 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Over | 63c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Over | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 144 | 35.4%51 W · 93 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x749b…48d8backed Over | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce01…5c2abacked Over | 59c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b3…27babacked Over | 59c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…9b74backed Over | 73c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8e…94b8backed Over | 60c | 21.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fef…a3d3backed Over | 59c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…1969backed Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8380…1866backed Over | 73c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73a3…dac6backed Over | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda6e…e417backed Over | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SBV Excelsior vs. PEC Zwolle: O/U 2.5this page
- SBV Excelsior vs. PEC Zwolle: O/U 1.5Over won
- SBV Excelsior vs. PEC Zwolle: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: SBV Excelsior (-1.5)PEC Zwolle won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.