Mls · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota United FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd46b35b36451ac68706b328866e4881bf66b17a7403fc79e20e1c182293a5a3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota United FCof Minnesota United FC, Portland Timbers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $569
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $590
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $569 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Portland Timbers | 68c | 185$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.8 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Minnesota United FC | 32c | 134.38$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.38 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…2c0abacked Portland Timbers | 69c | 124.64$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Minnesota United FC | 31c | 124.64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Minnesota United FC | 31c | 112.59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.69 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee3…9a19backed Portland Timbers | 69c | 106.8$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Portland Timbers | 75c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Portland Timbers | 68c | 15.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Portland Timbers | 68c | 15.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Portland Timbers | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota United FC (-1.5)this page
- Minnesota United FC vs. Portland Timbers: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Minnesota United FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 1.5Over won
- Minnesota United FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 2.5Under won
- Minnesota United FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Minnesota United FC (-2.5)Portland Timbers won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-2.5)Minnesota United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.