Mls · resolved market
Minnesota United FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e3256b6be9005ef2f7f0c88f57ef5e1d318990250f411bb22246161ee5f03db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,987
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,987 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Under | 41c | 882$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.43 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 58c | 579.79$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.37 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 54c | 356.62$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.76 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Over | 51c | 339.24$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 44c | 278$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.44 | 103 | 19.4%20 W · 83 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 59c | 258.46$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.49 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 48c | 235.74$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.7 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 38c | 224$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.36 | 191 | 72.3%138 W · 53 L | +36.8wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 59c | 180$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.2 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 52c | 169.82$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.81 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 36c | 140$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b1…315abacked Under | 39c | 114.1$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 29cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2e…5b64backed Over | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 54c | 74.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 59c | 72.17$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +7.6wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 48c | 51.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 23c | 49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…1260backed Over | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 62c | 46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 38c | 46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 63c | 43.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -11.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 54c | 40.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a1…3a92backed Under | 54c | 36.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Under | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | -16.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…20fabacked Over | 62c | 23.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…f7c2backed Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Over | 59c | 18.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -7.0wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota United FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 2.5this page
- Minnesota United FC vs. Portland Timbers: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Minnesota United FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 1.5Over won
- Minnesota United FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Minnesota United FC (-1.5)Minnesota United FC won
- Spread: Minnesota United FC (-2.5)Portland Timbers won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-2.5)Minnesota United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.