Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Golden Barys (BO1)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd47acb57d529838a14c0bfbd2e3a5f1b0f5d2ef2fa5206cbed940489440602c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rune Eatersof Rune Eaters, Golden Barys
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2615…6c59backed Golden Barys | 2c | 2,500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Golden Barys | 20c | 2,435$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.28 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58f8…dc70backed Rune Eaters | 75c | 1,821$1,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.37 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Golden Barys | 21c | 1,606$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.45 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked Rune Eaters | 79c | 1,314$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.99 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Rune Eaters | 77c | 1,030$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.62 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…4e62backed Golden Barys | 29c | 1,006$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked Rune Eaters | 78c | 951.64$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.36 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…a679backed Golden Barys | 23c | 404.35$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67cc…942fbacked Golden Barys | 23c | 404.35$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac0c…739cbacked Golden Barys | 15c | 399.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…7423backed Golden Barys | 21c | 326$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.46 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a6…9837backed Rune Eaters | 79c | 326$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.46 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f3…9f9bbacked Golden Barys | 17c | 292.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked Rune Eaters | 79c | 250$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 161 | 55.3%89 W · 72 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Golden Barys | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 477 | 48.6%232 W · 245 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdac9…56e7backed Golden Barys | 23c | 191.3$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf1…99d3backed Rune Eaters | 78c | 154.21$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1197…8311backed Golden Barys | 44c | 133.18$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.42 | 126 | 61.1%77 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Golden Barys | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 173 | 42.8%74 W · 99 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe06c…62aebacked Rune Eaters | 77c | 130.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…5607backed Golden Barys | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Rune Eaters | 79c | 119.05$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20b2…f114backed Golden Barys | 22c | 115.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 151 | 31.8%48 W · 103 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Rune Eaters | 56c | 115.17$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.68 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Golden Barys | 21c | 103.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…affbbacked Golden Barys | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 255 | 47.8%122 W · 133 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90eb…68dfbacked Golden Barys | 21c | 85.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Rune Eaters | 79c | 65.3$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 328 | 54.9%180 W · 148 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1c…dc02backed Golden Barys | 22c | 49.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Golden Barys | 30c | 39.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x876b…2161backed Rune Eaters | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e9…bba0backed Rune Eaters | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x457b…e991backed Rune Eaters | 79c | 14.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Rune Eaters | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.