Bundesliga · resolved market
FC St. Pauli vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5260cd17510b9b82ed503caa6d9e9289d00d6bd6125af4ff1e6ddeb20913b18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,121
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,564
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,121 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Over | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Under | 46c | 1,500$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 32c | 1,257$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.64 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 44c | 860.19$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.69 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 53c | 468.81$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.81 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Under | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 48c | 106.15$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…bbeebacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…8ae4backed Under | 48c | 27.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +206.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc8…b60ebacked Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeedf…1483backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC St. Pauli vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: FC St. Pauli (-0.5)Borussia Mönchengladbach won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.