Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5a3ae0c8fcab2675dd644fe041b6875869febcae493dfb61a2d745b50e4e5e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,446
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,071
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,446 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 3c | 481.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 43c | 375.34$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 28c | 347.98$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.01 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0335…6ecabacked No | 78c | 305$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.29 | 54 | 92.6%50 W · 4 L | +17.4wins | +0.32per pick | 60cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 64c | 222.48$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.65 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5699…418dbacked Yes | 79c | 187.62$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.99 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 36c | 141.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked Yes | 37c | 139.54$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.11 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 61c | 138$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.73 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 75c | 132.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 61c | 102.56$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 62c | 99.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 60c | 86.6$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.42 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked Yes | 34c | 72.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 32c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.68 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 37c | 61.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.51 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 43c | 57.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 46c | 56.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 61c | 55.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38cf…5d18backed No | 32c | 46.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +184.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…54c9backed No | 48c | 45.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 22c | 45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 55c | 43.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 53c | 41.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 47c | 37.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 57c | 35.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 55c | 33.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904c…4172backed No | 66c | 30.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed Yes | 64c | 23.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 45c | 22.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 57c | 20.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 69c | 20.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9848…f408backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec4…ce94backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde8b…612fbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +5.8wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on May 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.