South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Mirassol FC win on 2025-10-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5f9fe811279d23ecd3c53d27177dd643ed03ad49ef5ac5234af273754e33838
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,113
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,113 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 40c | 30,000$12,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,000.11 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed No | 60c | 26,656$15,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,993.69 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 48c | 8,574$4,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,107.83 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…4b9dbacked Yes | 73c | 4,092$2,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,096.53 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b7…e9babacked Yes | 38c | 4,040$1,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,504.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 61c | 2,778$1,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,685.07 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 41c | 1,623$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.06 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 61c | 1,476$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.6 | 160 | 55.6%89 W · 71 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 36c | 1,129$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.82 | 184 | 33.2%61 W · 123 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…770cbacked Yes | 42c | 823$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.86 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 38c | 747.44$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.28 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…e912backed No | 60c | 700$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd561…be29backed Yes | 44c | 640.54$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked No | 60c | 600$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Yes | 40c | 501.7$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.7 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb137…4aafbacked Yes | 42c | 479.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.01 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 61c | 423.56$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.56 | 404 | 42.1%170 W · 234 L | -12.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc648…259cbacked No | 60c | 312.82$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.82 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x290f…7e47backed Yes | 71c | 300$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8480…293ebacked No | 60c | 300$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked No | 60c | 300$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa52e…e2c4backed No | 60c | 300$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0727…ec27backed Yes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Yes | 47c | 208.54$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 40c | 200$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.1 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb1…4df1backed Yes | 47c | 126.61$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.61 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +43%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7b…f474backed No | 46c | 116.23$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 60c | 108.49$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.07 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 40c | 99.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.57 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2a…2ba0backed Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 60c | 83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb456…1774backed Yes | 40c | 74.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.67 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb1…6240backed Yes | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fd…49eebacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x241c…5407backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc668…f670backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6d…a980backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…19cabacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2392…add3backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…6f08backed Yes | 37c | 29.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 36c | 28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 318 | 27%86 W · 232 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…0f54backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42ed…d13dbacked Yes | 61c | 24.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02ff…d2f4backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mirassol FC win on 2025-10-25?this page
- Will SC Recife vs. Mirassol FC end in a draw?No won
- Will SC Recife win on 2025-10-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.