College Football · resolved market
Spread: Louisville (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd60fe7b5987fe264295fa298a8f8e9b799fa83b55c03fd5e199e74ad10af474f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Louisvilleof Louisville, Virginia Tech
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,955
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x145c…43bcbacked Virginia Tech | 52c | 29,062$15,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,112.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Louisville | 48c | 26,175$12,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,610.83 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…c94dbacked Virginia Tech | 52c | 10,889$5,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,662.28 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Louisville | 48c | 8,480$4,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,409.6 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Louisville | 49c | 6,895$3,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,505.99 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Louisville | 49c | 5,330$2,605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,724.99 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Virginia Tech | 53c | 4,795$2,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,541.26 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Virginia Tech | 52c | 2,917$1,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,507.67 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Louisville | 48c | 2,634$1,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380.86 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…5968backed Virginia Tech | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Virginia Tech | 50c | 1,600$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.95 | 176 | 55.1%97 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Louisville | 49c | 1,224$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.49 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Virginia Tech | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Louisville | 47c | 731$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.43 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb6…9aabbacked Louisville | 50c | 600.01$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.01 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Louisville | 3c | 446$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.62 | 86 | 29.1%25 W · 61 L | +15.2wins | +0.18per pick | 11cpaid | +361.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Louisville | 49c | 400$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Louisville | 47c | 400$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Virginia Tech | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…ad57backed Virginia Tech | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Virginia Tech | 52c | 120$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Louisville | 49c | 120$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 268 | 46.3%124 W · 144 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Virginia Tech | 51c | 108.11$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.13 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked Louisville | 49c | 72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Louisville | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Louisville | 49c | 54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe059…55aabacked Louisville | 48c | 52.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde98…bedfbacked Virginia Tech | 52c | 52.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Virginia Tech | 53c | 52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Louisville | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 241 | 57.3%138 W · 103 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Louisville | 47c | 44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…b033backed Louisville | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Louisville (-10.5)this page
- Louisville vs. Virginia TechLouisville won
- Louisville vs. Virginia Tech: 1H MoneylineVirginia Tech won
- Louisville vs. Virginia Tech: O/U 53.5Under won
- O/U 54.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.