Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 31°C on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd61cc5a28d5efa7bbfd22c8b3b8c3c00053f491e5b6a90ef0a9a0bc30eb84c3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,440
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,440 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 4c | 2,206$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.45 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 2c | 686$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 4c | 436$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab0…6364backed Yes | 50c | 390.03$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.82 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 6c | 313.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 6c | 311.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe8…55cabacked Yes | 10c | 299.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 8c | 276.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…25b5backed Yes | 4c | 251.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 370 | 7.8%29 W · 341 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb9…83acbacked No | 60c | 175.87$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.04 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 58c | 149.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed No | 53c | 137.08$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.85 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 118.87$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.46 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 48c | 94.22$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 56.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf625…ae8abacked Yes | 53c | 42.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…05a5backed No | 70c | 39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 84 | 26.2%22 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 42c | 37.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb17…0cd7backed Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 71c | 25.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 68c | 22.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 73c | 16.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 31°C on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 30°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on April 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 36°C on April 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.