Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd65dd8026dec560ebbb8dbbd918acdff71056233e82be457452ef98fc5956787
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MODUSof Spirit Academy, MODUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,641
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,656
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,641 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6c8…50eabacked MODUS | 66c | 646.54$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ab…b7e5backed Spirit Academy | 33c | 638.28$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4235…69cbbacked MODUS | 67c | 607.72$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.55 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2aba…47e5backed Spirit Academy | 32c | 601.21$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Spirit Academy | 17c | 273.69$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x064f…7a75backed Spirit Academy | 6c | 249.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ef…840bbacked Spirit Academy | 24c | 199.26$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Spirit Academy | 19c | 113.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a1…790dbacked MODUS | 77c | 93.71$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Spirit Academy | 16c | 70.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Spirit Academy | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Spirit Academy | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed MODUS | 76c | 49.33$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked MODUS | 80c | 29.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed MODUS | 77c | 29.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed MODUS | 80c | 17.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs MODUS - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs MODUS (BO3) - European Pro League PlayoffsMODUS won
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs MODUS - Game 2 WinnerMODUS won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.