Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x014c54c7f967d1b0963a46c1b1b9473aaf2ca961f7db55638f97b49cce26140e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MODUSof Spirit Academy, MODUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,323
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,323 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed MODUS | 66c | 2,204$1,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.34 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd83…7d7cbacked Spirit Academy | 28c | 1,443$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.96 | 147 | 47.6%70 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29f9…2aa9backed Spirit Academy | 26c | 535.14$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Spirit Academy | 31c | 435.18$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.91 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe163…9d33backed MODUS | 73c | 398.44$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…f1b3backed Spirit Academy | 26c | 391.8$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a1…790dbacked MODUS | 72c | 361.02$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.09 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…2f73backed Spirit Academy | 45c | 301.24$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.37 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed MODUS | 73c | 283.17$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.06 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc9…e444backed Spirit Academy | 12c | 262.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 132 | 28.8%38 W · 94 L | -9.7wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -40%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed MODUS | 70c | 233.43$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.98 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…edbabacked MODUS | 72c | 191.32$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.45 | 430 | 49.1%211 W · 219 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…85c6backed Spirit Academy | 43c | 178.11$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.28 | 293 | 47.4%139 W · 154 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x149a…49d0backed MODUS | 77c | 158.7$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 507 | 69.2%351 W · 156 L | +33.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x540d…c8f9backed Spirit Academy | 40c | 143.07$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.86 | 388 | 55.2%214 W · 174 L | +29.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c07…5feabacked MODUS | 75c | 140$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa042…5539backed MODUS | 80c | 119.55$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 174 | 54%94 W · 80 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…77dcbacked Spirit Academy | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 292 | 40.4%118 W · 174 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…dc17backed MODUS | 75c | 109.57$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 73 | 76.7%56 W · 17 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb04d…2b19backed Spirit Academy | 22c | 107.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed MODUS | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Spirit Academy | 32c | 91.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x064f…7a75backed Spirit Academy | 17c | 88.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…f7f0backed Spirit Academy | 33c | 78.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 515 | 50.9%262 W · 253 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…19eebacked MODUS | 80c | 78.41$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Spirit Academy | 28c | 77.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Spirit Academy | 29c | 75.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked MODUS | 67c | 73.42$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked MODUS | 66c | 70.33$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc6…9092backed Spirit Academy | 31c | 61.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 84 | 20.2%17 W · 67 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c52…677dbacked Spirit Academy | 38c | 58.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ba…8faebacked Spirit Academy | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed MODUS | 67c | 48.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…fc02backed Spirit Academy | 41c | 31.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked MODUS | 73c | 22.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2757…55f0backed MODUS | 69c | 21.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked MODUS | 74c | 18.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs MODUS - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs MODUS (BO3) - European Pro League PlayoffsMODUS won
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs MODUS - Game 1 WinnerMODUS won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.