Token Launches · resolved market
Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd663f55573d557a249e5e1e6b64bcd00efdde31007c43090c8621f4cf1393760
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,456
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,629
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,456 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x482b…34acbacked Down | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1a…3292backed Down | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01b0…0f03backed Up | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a2…f3b9backed Up | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb93…77b9backed Down | 51c | 680$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8868…fbb9backed Down | 51c | 680$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe33…4fb1backed Up | 49c | 425$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae2f…6c82backed Up | 52c | 425$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9210…4e27backed Down | 51c | 320$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb360…d8c7backed Down | 51c | 320$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb7…01f3backed Up | 49c | 305$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab4…9464backed Up | 52c | 305$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0212…dc7fbacked Up | 52c | 230$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1de…9165backed Up | 49c | 230$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b33…2d2cbacked Up | 73c | 116.8$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…2c1fbacked Down | 34c | 102.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf311…31efbacked Up | 51c | 57.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x600a…2853backed Down | 51c | 52.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…5b1ebacked Down | 45c | 51.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd652…c035backed Up | 52c | 49.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8dc…1890backed Down | 51c | 48.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94e0…2393backed Up | 48c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…03e7backed Down | 52c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe126…a452backed Up | 54c | 37.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9d…3585backed Up | 53c | 33.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa2…b6d3backed Up | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +102%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79f3…d803backed Down | 48c | 24.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdce2…774ebacked Down | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe327…1fffbacked Up | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.