Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Providence Friars (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6bd572ece3e0416a797a44a6dd105ae3616a79c19c5c0c8bf4906e5cb4cf60a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Providence Friarsof Providence Friars, Butler Bulldogs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,225
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,225 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6027…4320backed Providence Friars | 52c | 1,031$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.66 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Butler Bulldogs | 48c | 973.5$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.28 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Providence Friars | 52c | 266.88$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.1 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Providence Friars | 47c | 224.84$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.12 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Butler Bulldogs | 43c | 197.18$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.56 | 338 | 55%186 W · 152 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Butler Bulldogs | 49c | 164.05$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.22 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…d142backed Butler Bulldogs | 48c | 112.41$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Providence Friars | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2442…0c2bbacked Butler Bulldogs | 52c | 76.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 140 | 51.4%72 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Butler Bulldogs | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…7ef0backed Providence Friars | 48c | 51.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 229 | 50.7%116 W · 113 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Providence Friars | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 576 | 55%317 W · 259 L | +17.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Providence Friars | 44c | 39.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Providence Friars | 72c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Butler Bulldogs | 50c | 26.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 276 | 50.7%140 W · 136 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Butler Bulldogs | 52c | 25.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Butler Bulldogs | 51c | 21.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Providence Friars (-1.5)this page
- Providence Friars vs. Butler BulldogsProvidence Friars won
- Providence Friars vs. Butler Bulldogs: O/U 162.5Over won
- Providence Friars vs. Butler Bulldogs: O/U 163.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.