Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Northern Iowa vs. Murray State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6bf855800b8153c4abb0ae585760fd7838ba7b9df87778ea249e19f3c636c4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Northern Iowaof Northern Iowa, Murray State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,468
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,563
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,468 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3aec…0f2dbacked Northern Iowa | 48c | 1,800$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…4d99backed Murray State | 52c | 1,800$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcf…d6a9backed Northern Iowa | 55c | 1,300$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe973…7338backed Murray State | 45c | 1,300$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Northern Iowa | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 391 | 44.5%174 W · 217 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Murray State | 43c | 670.7$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.2 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…38adbacked Murray State | 48c | 627.08$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8769…48ecbacked Northern Iowa | 51c | 588.33$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.01 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.23per pick | 58cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Murray State | 50c | 278.78$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.39 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked Northern Iowa | 57c | 274.37$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.98 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -7.3wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x193d…2eb4backed Murray State | 48c | 210.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Murray State | 44c | 197.8$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.37 | 605 | 51.4%311 W · 294 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Murray State | 48c | 159.93$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.77 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c97…5b08backed Murray State | 50c | 136$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Murray State | 48c | 125.08$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.04 | 284 | 45.1%128 W · 156 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…13c9backed Northern Iowa | 57c | 125$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.01 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +873.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Murray State | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 820 | 48.2%395 W · 425 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Northern Iowa | 54c | 111.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.71 | 247 | 59.5%147 W · 100 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Murray State | 48c | 110.89$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.07 | 348 | 42.8%149 W · 199 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…7a67backed Northern Iowa | 57c | 105.17$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.17 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Northern Iowa | 55c | 100.22$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -5.7wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Murray State | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x102d…06cdbacked Northern Iowa | 72c | 94$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1611…f542backed Murray State | 50c | 88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb509…40fdbacked Northern Iowa | 50c | 68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f98…4cc0backed Northern Iowa | 50c | 68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c06…d415backed Northern Iowa | 50c | 68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe9…5f24backed Murray State | 50c | 66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa814…bb34backed Murray State | 50c | 58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…52dbbacked Northern Iowa | 50c | 54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Murray State | 28c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2bb…b014backed Murray State | 50c | 52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4375…6b5abacked Murray State | 50c | 51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb9…839dbacked Northern Iowa | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa261…37dabacked Murray State | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe06c…62aebacked Northern Iowa | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…1a17backed Northern Iowa | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 64cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9516…5ef5backed Murray State | 50c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x943a…72e2backed Northern Iowa | 50c | 47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffeb…5c1fbacked Northern Iowa | 50c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8417…b76fbacked Northern Iowa | 50c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906e…9b86backed Murray State | 50c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01b5…5e08backed Murray State | 50c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x360d…d156backed Murray State | 50c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…2b87backed Northern Iowa | 50c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c0…0131backed Northern Iowa | 50c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f16…fe51backed Murray State | 51c | 41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe91b…eaabbacked Northern Iowa | 49c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Northern Iowa | 52c | 34.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79c4…7024backed Murray State | 51c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f24…2bd8backed Northern Iowa | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadeb…5e7cbacked Northern Iowa | 49c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +51%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…c08ebacked Murray State | 51c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x590d…3441backed Northern Iowa | 49c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa751…2d34backed Murray State | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cb…c3c8backed Northern Iowa | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde12…a72abacked Murray State | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Northern Iowa | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.