TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Northern Iowa vs. Murray State

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Northern Iowaof Northern Iowa, Murray State
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,468
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,563

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,468 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3aec…0f2dbacked Northern Iowa48c1,800$864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9361233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e85…4d99backed Murray State52c1,800$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9361656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbcf…d6a9backed Northern Iowa55c1,300$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe973…7338backed Murray State45c1,300$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Northern Iowa58c1,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42039144.5%174 W · 217 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Murray State43c670.7$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.253057.4%304 W · 226 L+33.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x920d…38adbacked Murray State48c627.08$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003423.5%8 W · 26 L-4.5wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-38%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x8769…48ecbacked Northern Iowa51c588.33$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.011735.3%6 W · 11 L-3.9wins-0.23per pick58cpaid-38.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Murray State50c278.78$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.397145.1%32 W · 39 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5834…f0cbbacked Northern Iowa57c274.37$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.985942.4%25 W · 34 L-7.3wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-29.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x193d…2eb4backed Murray State48c210.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006636.4%24 W · 42 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Murray State44c197.8$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.3760551.4%311 W · 294 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Murray State48c159.93$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.776440.6%26 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c97…5b08backed Murray State50c136$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40e3…0787backed Murray State48c125.08$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.0428445.1%128 W · 156 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8342…13c9backed Northern Iowa57c125$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.011154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick62cpaid+873.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Murray State50c120$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6082048.2%395 W · 425 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2366…1078backed Northern Iowa54c111.71$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.7124759.5%147 W · 100 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Murray State48c110.89$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0734842.8%149 W · 199 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2686…7a67backed Northern Iowa57c105.17$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.173762.2%23 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick69cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xef63…96cbbacked Northern Iowa55c100.22$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.12722.2%6 W · 21 L-5.7wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-45.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5f41…83f5backed Murray State49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+66.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x102d…06cdbacked Northern Iowa72c94$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.32540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-32.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1611…f542backed Murray State50c88$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+47.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb509…40fdbacked Northern Iowa50c68$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+67.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f98…4cc0backed Northern Iowa50c68$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c06…d415backed Northern Iowa50c68$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebe9…5f24backed Murray State50c66$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa814…bb34backed Murray State50c58$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0838…52dbbacked Northern Iowa50c54$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Murray State28c52$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.561,39144.1%613 W · 778 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2bb…b014backed Murray State50c52$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4375…6b5abacked Murray State50c51$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdb9…839dbacked Northern Iowa50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+33.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa261…37dabacked Murray State28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe06c…62aebacked Northern Iowa53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.52138.1%8 W · 13 L-3.1wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-36.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7b0f…1a17backed Northern Iowa50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick64cpaid+64.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9516…5ef5backed Murray State50c48$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-72.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x943a…72e2backed Northern Iowa50c47$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffeb…5c1fbacked Northern Iowa50c46$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+33.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8417…b76fbacked Northern Iowa50c46$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+34.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x906e…9b86backed Murray State50c44$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01b5…5e08backed Murray State50c44$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x360d…d156backed Murray State50c44$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a4e…2b87backed Northern Iowa50c42$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+39.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0c0…0131backed Northern Iowa50c42$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+17.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f16…fe51backed Murray State51c41$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.91366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+36.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe91b…eaabbacked Northern Iowa49c41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.91560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid+7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad9d…9b95backed Northern Iowa52c34.94$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.777454.1%40 W · 34 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x79c4…7024backed Murray State51c31$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f24…2bd8backed Northern Iowa49c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadeb…5e7cbacked Northern Iowa49c28$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.28475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.36per pick39cpaid+51%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6011…c08ebacked Murray State51c27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.77250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x590d…3441backed Northern Iowa49c23$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.73250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa751…2d34backed Murray State51c22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2cb…c3c8backed Northern Iowa53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.42250%11 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde12…a72abacked Murray State51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.21154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0af8…9454backed Northern Iowa50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1010558.1%61 W · 44 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.