Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will CD Nacional win on 2026-04-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6f8ba9036b31a09ff522d3526a3abb548aa77bbf44fa86d85c4fa2791969621
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,190
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,190 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Yes | 58c | 2,615$1,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,102.49 | 189 | 40.2%76 W · 113 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…e793backed No | 42c | 2,022$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.48 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…caadbacked No | 23c | 1,858$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.12 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +5.7wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +109%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 76c | 1,765$1,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.36 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 69c | 822.9$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.06 | 920 | 43.4%399 W · 521 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 39c | 473.68$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.51 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 43c | 438$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.34 | 89 | 28.1%25 W · 64 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Yes | 47c | 421.17$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.47 | 109 | 44%48 W · 61 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 53c | 399.59$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.81 | 265 | 49.4%131 W · 134 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 68c | 379.98$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.77 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 75c | 317.98$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.99 | 940 | 43.7%411 W · 529 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked No | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 206 | 32%66 W · 140 L | -17.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 19c | 241.52$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed No | 48c | 240.99$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.67 | 124 | 37.9%47 W · 77 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0f…574cbacked Yes | 73c | 220.79$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.57 | 28 | 89.3%25 W · 3 L | +6.7wins | +0.24per pick | 65cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x34e8…100fbacked No | 47c | 193.64$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.01 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfec0…aeb9backed No | 49c | 183.22$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.78 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 31c | 179.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.05 | 641 | 43.4%278 W · 363 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 52c | 137.13$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.13 | 1,222 | 51%623 W · 599 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed No | 46c | 124.72$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.63 | 260 | 60.8%158 W · 102 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 51c | 111$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 1,143 | 53.2%608 W · 535 L | +44.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Yes | 49c | 83.38$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 49c | 79.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 47c | 73.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 1,159 | 60.7%703 W · 456 L | +68.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 52c | 61.63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 292 | 44.9%131 W · 161 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 53c | 51.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe363…c894backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 69c | 43.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 986 | 53.2%525 W · 461 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 63c | 39.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 1,107 | 47.7%528 W · 579 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 673 | 48.1%324 W · 349 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…4811backed No | 50c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 136 | 28.7%39 W · 97 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 35c | 32.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 583 | 20.1%117 W · 466 L | -37.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1a…5cddbacked Yes | 73c | 28.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7125…a5aabacked Yes | 75c | 26.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed No | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 381 | 47.5%181 W · 200 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 54c | 24.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 273 | 52.7%144 W · 129 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed No | 54c | 22.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d7…406dbacked Yes | 59c | 20.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ca…e04dbacked No | 53c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 67cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c7…bb75backed Yes | 73c | 15.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +38%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CD Nacional win on 2026-04-04?this page
- Will CD Nacional vs. CF Estrela da Amadora end in a draw?No won
- Will CF Estrela da Amadora win on 2026-04-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.