College Football · resolved market
Fresno State vs. UCLA
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7674c1de158876331100ac4c3f6eea4184e3b287ec626a5363daa3fb2898974
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- UCLAof Fresno State, UCLA
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,818
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,857
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,818 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed UCLA | 79c | 1,595$1,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.63 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed UCLA | 62c | 997.54$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.81 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Fresno State | 26c | 947.49$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.35 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Fresno State | 1c | 817$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 237 | 0.8%2 W · 235 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -98.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…d9ebbacked Fresno State | 54c | 505$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.35 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a67…dc7cbacked Fresno State | 47c | 489.36$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed Fresno State | 40c | 214.35$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.04 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked UCLA | 73c | 198.96$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.02 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95e5…44d9backed Fresno State | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe438…9471backed Fresno State | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…cf4cbacked UCLA | 72c | 43.65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8b…4f21backed UCLA | 74c | 40.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4b…fe27backed UCLA | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked UCLA | 73c | 36.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…52dbbacked UCLA | 65c | 21.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f52…c254backed UCLA | 73c | 16.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.