Serie A · resolved market
Spread: Juventus FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd79564654dea3d78ce628300bd1d1b0fe247e584ff69710b3aaa3a2b700baccc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cagliari Calcioof Juventus FC, Cagliari Calcio
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,078
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,078 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Cagliari Calcio | 52c | 1,936$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936.42 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab5…aab4backed Cagliari Calcio | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d94…40e6backed Juventus FC | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cagliari Calcio | 60c | 507.69$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.09 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Juventus FC | 63c | 318.44$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.62 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…db98backed Juventus FC | 44c | 260$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.4 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aaf…f27fbacked Juventus FC | 42c | 228.57$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cf…2302backed Juventus FC | 49c | 205.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Cagliari Calcio | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Juventus FC | 48c | 184.06$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.35 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Juventus FC | 54c | 150$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 124 | 22.6%28 W · 96 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Juventus FC | 49c | 128.61$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.49 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1645…f3dbbacked Juventus FC | 56c | 107.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2861…656dbacked Juventus FC | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a47…cfbbbacked Juventus FC | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Cagliari Calcio | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Cagliari Calcio | 44c | 88.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.84 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…8502backed Juventus FC | 43c | 74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe18…bf67backed Juventus FC | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Juventus FC | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89ac…de06backed Juventus FC | 48c | 29.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…2783backed Cagliari Calcio | 51c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…e66fbacked Cagliari Calcio | 51c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Cagliari Calcio | 51c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 136 | 50.7%69 W · 67 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…b1a1backed Cagliari Calcio | 51c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Juventus FC | 53c | 26.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Cagliari Calcio | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Cagliari Calcio | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 272 | 26.8%73 W · 199 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Juventus FC (-1.5)this page
- Juventus FC vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 1.5Over won
- Juventus FC vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 2.5Over won
- Juventus FC vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.