Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: summer bear vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - European Pro League Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd841188b7c330cc465a4dd0a4f49747f3229c12afc6673c83be8060ecbcee067
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- VP.Prodigyof summer bear, VP.Prodigy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,867
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,169
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,867 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed summer bear | 45c | 215.4$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.93 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc754…4b1dbacked VP.Prodigy | 50c | 206.24$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.7 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04a7…164bbacked summer bear | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked VP.Prodigy | 53c | 182.61$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.57 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked VP.Prodigy | 60c | 168.37$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.84 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked summer bear | 42c | 135.81$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.04 | 404 | 42.3%171 W · 233 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e8…3579backed VP.Prodigy | 51c | 118.72$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9195backed summer bear | 18c | 83.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…e82bbacked VP.Prodigy | 56c | 82.55$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed summer bear | 46c | 71.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8b…0644backed VP.Prodigy | 56c | 63.89$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed summer bear | 46c | 60.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb308…23a6backed summer bear | 33c | 52.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 169 | 39.6%67 W · 102 L | -15.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…bc7bbacked summer bear | 33c | 43.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae5…72d2backed VP.Prodigy | 67c | 43.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…cd9abacked VP.Prodigy | 57c | 42.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d1…6194backed VP.Prodigy | 57c | 39.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x680a…0a15backed summer bear | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 75.8%25 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed VP.Prodigy | 61c | 26.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed summer bear | 45c | 24.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed summer bear | 43c | 23.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 177 | 37.9%67 W · 110 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed summer bear | 48c | 20.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb209…b744backed VP.Prodigy | 68c | 19.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: summer bear vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - European Pro League Group Athis page
- Dota 2: summer bear vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 WinnerVP.Prodigy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.