MLB · resolved market
Spread: Dodgers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8d017d6e2df2303facf11c422a8453a3229f283fdfad79104256657b805fc18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Piratesof Dodgers, Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,535
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,537
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,535 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Dodgers | 49c | 4,034$1,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,973.82 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Pirates | 50c | 3,120$1,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,572.22 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Pirates | 51c | 3,031$1,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,487.09 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebd8…570cbacked Dodgers | 50c | 3,000$1,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,509.94 | 439 | 46%202 W · 237 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4a…048ebacked Pirates | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbfd…1be9backed Dodgers | 49c | 996.27$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.17 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Pirates | 51c | 800$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c11…02c8backed Dodgers | 50c | 700.53$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.27 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…cb96backed Pirates | 50c | 667.31$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331 | 98 | 42.9%42 W · 56 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafdc…e9c9backed Dodgers | 48c | 262.58$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Pirates | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b6…97b7backed Dodgers | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed Pirates | 52c | 195.28$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.73 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1888…e1cbbacked Pirates | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Dodgers | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 544 | 41.2%224 W · 320 L | -22.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c6…f6cabacked Dodgers | 52c | 63.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Pirates | 48c | 63.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 326 | 51.5%168 W · 158 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Dodgers (-1.5)this page
- Dodgers vs. PiratesPirates won
- Dodgers vs. Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.