MLB · resolved market
Spread: Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8f392de5ae1fc161c52eb9003c10d881b31fdc7cef34098790469acfa483f98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,298
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,297
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,298 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked No | 57c | 762.78$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433 | 308 | 42.9%132 W · 176 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Yes | 45c | 573.93$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.66 | 1,097 | 50.1%550 W · 547 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Yes | 43c | 522.29$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.71 | 543 | 45.5%247 W · 296 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed No | 53c | 299.35$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.43 | 549 | 41%225 W · 324 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 53c | 164.02$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.93 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 301 | 51.5%155 W · 146 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de9…4ab1backed Yes | 46c | 95$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed No | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 544 | 41.2%224 W · 320 L | -22.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4a…ff5bbacked Yes | 47c | 67.21$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.62 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11e4…f787backed No | 55c | 65.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3655…7b1bbacked Yes | 47c | 61.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1e…e80cbacked No | 55c | 60.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db0…3583backed Yes | 47c | 56.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…0518backed Yes | 49c | 55.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8994…5826backed No | 55c | 53.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07df…2506backed Yes | 47c | 51.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9978…6c41backed Yes | 47c | 51.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…2c06backed Yes | 48c | 51.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcea7…8e04backed No | 55c | 50.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1d…003dbacked Yes | 47c | 50.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ce…f415backed No | 55c | 49.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c8…6533backed No | 55c | 49.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef1…7c5fbacked No | 55c | 46.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda32…92a9backed No | 55c | 46.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…0536backed Yes | 47c | 46.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d50…40acbacked No | 55c | 46.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fb…41c6backed No | 55c | 45.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea29…0b0bbacked No | 55c | 45.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.3wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7679…310cbacked Yes | 48c | 44.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…28d7backed Yes | 47c | 41.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Phillies (-1.5)this page
- Braves vs. PhilliesPhillies won
- Braves vs. Phillies: O/U 10.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.