Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: FNL (-1.5) vs Arneb (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd964f767a7a6783484fd9f9d9679f55da060f3b34ea5d5b6ad0d8b9d77f872c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arnebof FENNEL, Arneb
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,839
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,616
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,839 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6918…782bbacked Arneb | 17c | 21,943$3,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,318.76 | 1,501 | 54.5%818 W · 683 L | +34.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf1…d4aebacked Arneb | 19c | 1,550$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,248.98 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | +10.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac42…60d1backed Arneb | 14c | 1,521$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,314.59 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…ab65backed Arneb | 15c | 1,010$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.21 | 2,156 | 53.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa500…39d1backed Arneb | 17c | 999.99$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.99 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71f8…ecc1backed Arneb | 16c | 551.88$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +130.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84fe…be09backed Arneb | 15c | 380$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…e6ffbacked Arneb | 15c | 378$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.3 | 159 | 50.9%81 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Arneb | 15c | 300$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 282 | 40.4%114 W · 168 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca97…f3cebacked Arneb | 15c | 194.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.96 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94fd…7fefbacked Arneb | 16c | 168.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.41 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +5.1wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x21dd…0b83backed Arneb | 17c | 154.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.46 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed Arneb | 11c | 110.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.79 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9e…fbfdbacked Arneb | 16c | 102.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.53 | 256 | 40.6%104 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: FNL (-1.5) vs Arneb (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- LoL: FENNEL vs Arneb (BO3) - LJL Regular SeasonFENNEL won
- LoL: FENNEL vs Arneb - Game 1 WinnerFENNEL won
- LoL: FENNEL vs Arneb - Game 2 WinnerArneb won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.