TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Kansas Jayhawks (-16.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Kansas Jayhawksof Kansas Jayhawks, Kansas State Wildcats
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,338

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,338 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe33f…e413backed Kansas State Wildcats49c499.24$242 inLost-$242.2337246.2%172 W · 200 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fa4…9a4cbacked Kansas State Wildcats50c400$200 inLost-$2008048.8%39 W · 41 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Kansas State Wildcats49c400$196 inLost-$19642934.3%147 W · 282 L+21.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Kansas Jayhawks51c291.99$149 inWon+$143.0912,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Kansas Jayhawks51c258.2$132 inWon+$126.314,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Kansas Jayhawks53c198.25$104 inWon+$94.1779448.9%388 W · 406 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa097…fba7backed Kansas State Wildcats49c198.25$97 inLost-$97.149148.4%44 W · 47 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72a1…1950backed Kansas Jayhawks50c198.25$99 inWon+$99.1333855%186 W · 152 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfba…80ebbacked Kansas Jayhawks60c165.27$99 inWon+$66.115639.3%22 W · 34 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-27%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Kansas State Wildcats40c164.68$66 inLost-$65.872,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Kansas Jayhawks50c148.69$74 inWon+$74.341,39752.7%736 W · 661 L+26.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ceb…b516backed Kansas Jayhawks50c138.78$69 inWon+$69.3912655.6%70 W · 56 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Kansas Jayhawks51c124.94$64 inWon+$61.2223149.8%115 W · 116 L+14.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+38.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4855…6a41backed Kansas Jayhawks55c59.25$32 inWon+$26.8332652.8%172 W · 154 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce9d…a219backed Kansas Jayhawks53c56.11$30 inWon+$26.377542.7%32 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Kansas State Wildcats45c42.59$19 inLost-$19.163,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbda3…ef65backed Kansas Jayhawks52c40$21 inWon+$19.262753%332 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Kansas Jayhawks52c20.83$11 inWon+$105,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.