Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nem vs. Wildcard
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9fd2eb54454a0ae148fb3f51fa1c460e440561f10d1456c7a8e5997d4c2a136
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wildcardof Nem, Wildcard
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,012
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Nem | 68c | 2,315$1,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,574.42 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…3934backed Wildcard | 32c | 2,315$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,574.42 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Wildcard | 34c | 472.98$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.67 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1b…5adbbacked Nem | 67c | 350.71$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.94 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x988d…9899backed Nem | 66c | 156.98$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.61 | 133 | 46.6%62 W · 71 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xede0…9117backed Wildcard | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Nem | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Wildcard | 41c | 81.44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.94 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Nem | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Nem | 63c | 17.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.