Fifa International · resolved market
Madagascar vs. Equatorial Guinea: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda4f0e9833ecc148313bc43606a893fec7d1079328fd96978df165072ddfcfd1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,687
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,687 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 3c | 1,200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 371 | 44.5%165 W · 206 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…91adbacked Over | 59c | 827.86$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -68%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 43c | 417.37$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.61 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Under | 40c | 341.8$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.66 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1973…9fb5backed Over | 46c | 299.99$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6544…4b74backed Over | 43c | 216.18$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 45c | 191.4$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.37 | 368 | 50.3%185 W · 183 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 54c | 188.44$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.95 | 1,560 | 43.8%684 W · 876 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…0263backed Over | 54c | 186.71$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.69 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…e32fbacked Over | 59c | 156.76$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.49 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 52c | 139.47$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.43 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f72…2fbfbacked Over | 49c | 128.15$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.28 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…b0babacked Under | 54c | 109.46$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.35 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 42c | 90.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5544backed Under | 39c | 84.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.59 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 58c | 81.26$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.13 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 54c | 64.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Under | 75c | 52.31$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Under | 54c | 45.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Under | 56c | 43.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 41c | 43.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Under | 51c | 38.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 49c | 37.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 831 | 53.3%443 W · 388 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Under | 54c | 36.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 54c | 27.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 351 | 50.7%178 W · 173 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dbf…a9ffbacked Under | 55c | 26.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c5…0d72backed Under | 74c | 26.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Under | 51c | 23.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 85 | 72.9%62 W · 23 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Under | 57c | 20.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 94 | 67%63 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…8aa3backed Under | 56c | 19.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Madagascar vs. Equatorial Guinea: O/U 2.5this page
- Madagascar vs. Equatorial Guinea: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Madagascar vs. Equatorial Guinea: O/U 1.5Over won
- Madagascar vs. Equatorial Guinea: O/U 3.5Under won
- Madagascar vs. Equatorial Guinea: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Equatorial Guinea (-1.5)Madagascar won
- Spread: Equatorial Guinea (-2.5)Madagascar won
- Spread: Madagascar (-1.5)Equatorial Guinea won
- Spread: Madagascar (-2.5)Equatorial Guinea won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.